spacecraft from entering orbit around
asteroid Eros as planned on January 10. The rendezvous and orbit insertion have been
postponed until February 14, 2000.
The NEAR team reports no satellites "larger than 100 meters" showed up in their
fly-by pictures. Our NEAR challenge predicted "at least three moons larger than
1 meter". The presently observed limit is nowhere near setting a useful constraint with
respect to our challenge. However, it is apparent that Eros has an extremely irregular
shape. It looks like a bent icicle at some orientations. That raises the question
whether any stable orbits exist for such an irregular gravity field. That may be
determined over the next few months. If no satellite orbits are stable, then we must look
for former moons that have gently impacted on the surface, often rolling great distances
and leaving visible roll marks in the process.
The chances of getting intact objects on the surface from non-satellite collisions are nil
because the rms speeds involved are typically 5,000 m/s for field asteroids, but only a few
m/s for satellites. Field asteroid speeds would result in highly destructive,
crater-forming impacts. So finding surface "satellites" when NEAR goes into orbit
around Eros next year is still a good diagnostic between the standard model and the eph.
